SOURCE: The Guardian
DATE: November 13, 2017
SNIP: The shale revolution in north America means the US is destined to become a net oil exporter within 10 years, for the first time since the 1950s.
The International Energy Agency said it expected that American oil production between 2010 and 2025 would grow at a rate unparalleled by any country in history, with far-reaching consequences for the US and the world.
The last time the US exported more oil than it imported was 1953, and a ban on oil exports was lifted only in 2015.
Technological developments in drilling and fracking since the turn of this century have unlocked huge reserves of gas and oil trapped in shale rock, and redrawn the energy landscape.
By 2030, China will have developed so much that it is expected to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest oil consumer. Asia as a whole is also expected to increase its appetite for gas shipped across the seas, with 70% of LNG predicted to end up in Asian ports by 2040.
Globally, energy demand will keep climbing but more slowly than in the past, largely due to population growth and increasing affluence in poorer countries. By 2040, the IEA expects energy needs to have risen by 30%, or the equivalent of adding another China and India worth of demand.
Unlike some experts and oil companies such as Shell, which believe demand for the fuel could peak as soon as the next decade, the IEA sees it slowing but not peaking even by 2040.
Despite the boom in green energy, CO2 emissions from energy are expected to increase to 35.7 gigatonnes by 2040, far too high to avoid dangerous impacts from global warming.