SOURCE: The Guardian
DATE: Aug 11, 2017
SNIP: 2014, 2015, and 2016 each broke the global temperature record. A new study led by climate scientist Michael Mann just published in Geophysical Research Letters used climate model simulations to examine the odds that these records would have been set in a world with and without human-caused global warming. In model simulations without a human climate influence, the authors concluded:
- There’s a one-in-a-million chance that 2014, 2015, and 2016 would each have been as hot as they were if only natural factors were at play.
- There’s a one-in-10,000 chance that 2014, 2015, and 2016 would all have been record-breaking hot years.
- There’s a less than 0.5% chance of three consecutive record-breaking years happening at any time since 2000.
- There’s a 0.1%–0.2% chance of 2016 being the hottest on record.
To put those numbers in perspective, you have about a one-in-3,000 (0.03%) chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime. You have about as much chance of being struck by lightning this year as 2014, 2015, and 2016 each being as hot as they were due solely to natural effects. That means denying human-caused global warming is like planning to be struck by lightning three years in a row. Perhaps a tinfoil hat will help.